Here are my main takeaways from the speakers and presenters. These are rough notes, loosely organized by concept.
This post offers some unusual business models and design advice for projects that involve neurofeedback, virtual reality, biodata processing, and/or near-term artificial intelligence applications in entertainment and health industries. 3
Business models for Biosensor devices and applications
Tim Chang, Mayfield: Vitamin gummy bears are an interesting deployment strategy. It’s good for you but it’s also fun. For wellness solutions that you want to deliver, you can use games, storytelling, and make it visually appealing.
How to create a “performance enhancing” service? Here is a sort of playbook of how to pull it off:
– A device to track activity
– AI software / cloud to process it and get insights
– A human coach / inspirational figure
– A social support community
I’m a big believer in this hybrid model. You can have machine learning and AI but you also need humans. You’re not scared of notifications on your watch. You need a coach to kick you in the butt, and a sympathetic peer group.
A promising business model is the “Device as a Service.” When the services become attached to a device and comes with subscriptions, App Stores, coaching, etc. For example, you could have a fitness tracking service that is $100 / year. It comes with a device for free, and an app store where developers can add upgrades.
“Future media will consist of the buying and selling of experiences”
Augmented Reality – challenges and potential
Brian Selzer, Daqri:
What makes AR different from VR, and how important is that difference? The key word for me is context. VR is an experience – a context you can completely control. That’s why we’ll see the first big successes come out with VR, with games and experiences.
When you open up the experience with AR, you need to relate the application to the environment. That is very challenging. You need to deal with the physics of light and object recognition. The difference between AR and VR is the level of transparency. Eventually, I suspect that we’ll be able to tune the transparency dial in headset displays: to go from complete transparency (AR) to complete immersion (VR).
The VR Industry is about to explode
Walter Greenleaf, CSO, Pear Therapeutics: The VR industry is about to Boom. Smartphones will be the VR platforms of the next few years. Everyone who has a smartphone 5 years from now will be using a virtual environment.
Fortunately, because we’ve seen this technology coming, the principles and heuristics for VR have been worked out. The enabling technology is here. Now we can slap on the paradigms that we’ve spent a long time developing in research labs.
We will always have more data than we know what to do with
Stan Williams, Neuromorphic Computing Lead, HP Labs: We will probably always have more data than we know what to do with, because we will continually add more sensors to the world. There’s two levels to that:
- The more we learn the more we figure out there is to learn.
- The horizon of what we think is possible is receding from us faster than we’re moving forward.
The simple estimates of how much data were crunching a few years ago are probably off by a few orders of magnitude. The industry will need to find a way to integrate information from a huge amount of sensory data, plus a large amount of processing at many different levels.
AI as a personal trainer
Liesl Capper, Leader, Watson Life, IBM: Human interaction with AI personalities is enabled by “the willing suspension of disbelief.” If you put enough stuff together that gives the illusion of human intelligence, people will accept it because they want to believe that someone is taking them on and caring about them.
Tim Chang, Mayfield: (On AI-assisted living) AI transforms the feedback loop and the ability to model anything. The more I use these neurogaming systems, the more the cloud is forming a model of me.
Design Projects and Business Ideas
Here are two project ideas that occured to me at the conference. If you succeed with one of these, you’re welcome. Email me if you’re interested in this kind of thing so I can connect you with other people.
“Stickers:” Portable Biosensor Hardware Design
One of the main roadblocks to integrating realtime biodata with other applications is that the design of the EEG or heart rate monitoring hardware is too big and noticeable.
You could enable more casual biodata monitoring with “wireless biosensor stickers.” One for reading EEG on the frontal lobe, one for heart rate variability, and one for skin conductance. They could wirelessly transmit data to a cell phone. Technical challenges to developing these would include battery life for the stickers, and the ability to transmit a strong enough signal. Design challenges would be creating a sticker that contains wires and a small battery, that doesn’t look goofy on your forehead.
Virtual Reality Anything
The KZero report on the Virtual Reality Consumer market estimated that the Virtual reality market would take in $90m in revenue in 2014, $2.3bn in 2015, $3.8bn in 2016, $4.6bn in 2017 and $5.2bn in 2018. Cumulatively across the period of 2014 to 2018 we have forecasted the consumer virtual reality market to be worth $16.2bn. http://www.kzero.co.uk/blog/consumer-virtual-reality-market-worth-13bn-2018/
Note the projected leap from $90 million to $2.3 billion from 2014 to 2015. Oculus, Samsung, and possibly others are planning each a consumer VR headset release in 2015. Since this report was released in early 2014, I would suspect the projections to be pushed back about a year.
Even stupid apps will probably get a lot of downloads while the rest of the developer world realizes VR is a thing and catches up.
Potential VR Design Projects: If I had a Unity developer and 6 months, and I was optimizing only for earning money within the next 18 months, I would aim to create 4-5 stupidly simple games for the mass market to play on a VR cell phone.
If I wanted to feel like the product itself was slightly useful for the world, but still earn money, I would explore applications in psychotherapy, social skill training, and data visualization. Email me if you have ideas or want to connect with others who are interested in therapeutic, educational, or dataviz applications of VR.
- “The Entertainment Software and Cognitive Neurotherapeutics Society (ESCoNS) is the premier academic society for scientists and game researchers who are at the forefront of researching novel ways to develop scientifically valid neurosoftware for the treatment of brain disorders”. ↩
- The Neurogaming crowd is an eclectic mix of brain-training research from academia, EEG headset companies, other biosensor hardware makers, virtual reality developers, psychotherapists, and educators. It’s very much in the vein of the more immediate potential applications of (what I’ve described as) “cognitive technology.”
The word “neurogaming” sounds a lot like hype-ish neurobunk, and is used as catch-all term for a large collection of biosensor + media technologies. The word “cognitive technology” describes a similar set of technologies with applications beyond gaming, which is why I prefer it. ↩
- A few notes:
– Sentences that are not in quotation marks are my own paraphrasing of the speaker.
– Note that these are comments from people who are selected for being a good speaker at a tech conference, and so are backed by the experience / perspective of the speaker rather than research / other forecasting methods.
– I put more weight on the business advice, and varying amounts of weight on the tech design or tech forecasting comments, depending on the speaker. ↩